The claim racing across X and Instagram this week—“ANOTHER SAUDI ON WAY 🔥🤯 | 2,200 crore barrels of oil in the Andaman Sea will make India a $20 trillion economy”—has lit up timelines. Yet behind the emojis and superlatives lies a more nuanced (and still unproven) story of deep‑water exploration, political optimism and economic possibility.
Where the 2,200‑crore‑barrel number comes from
The figure appears to originate from viral posts by tech and finance influencers as well as the infotainment handle Infomance (shared thousands of times on Facebook and X) that re‑worked remarks by Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. In televised interviews, Puri never used the “2,200 crore barrels” phrase; instead, he said India is “close to a Guyana‑type jackpot of 184,440 crore litres of crude” in the Andaman basin—about 11.6 billion barrels if converted directly at 0.00629 barrel per litre.m.economictimes.com Social‑media pages simply multiplied the Guyana comparison to arrive at the more dramatic 22‑billion‑barrel figure.
What officials are actually saying
Puri’s message, repeated in multiple media appearances, is that decades‑old “no‑go” rules around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands have been relaxed, allowing Oil and Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd. to drill a series of high‑risk, ultra‑deep wells. He argues that even a single “Guyana‑scale” find—roughly five to twelve billion barrels—would be a “game‑changer” that could help lift India’s $3.7 trillion GDP toward the government’s long‑stated $20 trillion target by 2047.hindustantimes.com
Industry trade journal Upstream confirms that ONGC spudded its first wildcat in the Andaman Trench last month using a sixth‑generation drillship but notes that “no commercial discoveries have yet been reported.”upstreamonline.com
The geology and the odds
Geologically, the Andaman–Nicobar back‑arc is an extension of the petroleum‑rich North Sumatra Basin. Seismic surveys show stacked clastic reservoirs and possible carbonate build‑ups in water depths exceeding 2,000 metres. But deep‑water exploration is statistically brutal: Guyana’s now‑celebrated Stabroek Block took 40+ dry holes before Exxon‑Mobil’s Liza‑1 struck oil in 2015.m.economictimes.com
ONGC drilled 541 wells in FY 2024, its busiest year in 37, yet only a handful were Andaman targets, each costing about US $100 million.m.economictimes.com At that burn rate, matching Guyana’s success trajectory could cost several billion dollars and ten years of work.
Economic stakes—and the $20 trillion headline
India imports 85 % of its crude. Every US$1 rise in Brent adds roughly ₹8,200 crore to its annual import bill. Energy analysts at the Observer Research Foundation calculate that a median‑size 5‑billion‑barrel Andaman find, if developed, could lower India’s import dependence to 60 % by the mid‑2030s and add 0.7 percentage points to annual GDP growth during peak production years. That is meaningful—but short of the five‑fold GDP leap touted online.
Macro‑economists caution that achieving a $20 trillion economy will ultimately hinge on broader productivity gains, manufacturing expansion and services exports—not oil alone. Still, a domestic crude bonanza would strengthen the rupee, narrow the current‑account deficit and free fiscal space for infrastructure.
Environmental and strategic hurdles
Drilling in the ecologically sensitive Andaman Sea faces tight clearances under India’s Coastal Regulation Zone rules and potential push‑back from Indonesia, which shares maritime boundaries. The defence ministry also vets rigs because the Andamans host India’s Tri‑Service Command. Any full‑field development would require subsea pipelines snaking 1,000 km to the east coast or a new mini‑refinery on Great Nicobar—projects with long gestation periods.
What happens next
- Well‑results watch (2025‑26): ONGC’s first two exploratory wells are expected to reach total depth by December. Core‑sample analysis will reveal whether the traps contain moveable hydrocarbons.
- Resource classification (2026‑27): If hydrocarbons flow, independent auditors (e.g., DeGolyer & MacNaughton) will provide the first 2P reserve estimate.
- Field development plan (∼2030): Only then will a production‑sharing contract, pipeline route and financing structure be finalised.
In short, India has not yet “found” 2,200 crore barrels. It is, instead, at the tantalising start of a high‑stakes exploration campaign with echoes of Guyana’s success—but also its long odds. Whether the Andaman basin becomes “another Saudi” or another string of dry holes will be decided thousands of metres below the waves and many years down the road.
Sources
- The Economic Times, “India close to hitting Guyana‑type jackpot in Andaman”, 16 June 2025.m.economictimes.com
- Hindustan Times, “India has several Guyana‑sized oil reserves in Andamans, says Puri”, 17 June 2025.hindustantimes.com
- UpstreamOnline, “Could India’s Andaman basin be the next Guyana?”, 17 June 2025.upstreamonline.com
- The CSR Journal, “India on Brink of Major Oil Discovery in Andaman Sea”, 16 June 2025.thecsrjournal.in
