In a move that has heightened geopolitical tensions in South Asia, China has approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, near the Indian border. The project, estimated to cost around $137 billion, aims to harness the river’s immense hydropower potential but has raised significant concerns in downstream countries, particularly India and Bangladesh.
China’s Ambitious Hydropower Project
The proposed dam is to be built on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River (the Tibetan name for the Brahmaputra) at a location where the river makes a sharp U-turn before entering India. This area is characterized by a vertical drop of 2,000 meters over a 50 km distance, offering nearly 70 million kilowatts of hydropower resources—more than three times the capacity of China’s current largest hydropower facility, the Three Gorges Dam.
Once completed, the dam is expected to generate over 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, sufficient to meet the annual needs of more than 300 million people. Chinese authorities assert that the project has undergone rigorous scientific evaluation to ensure its safety and environmental sustainability. They emphasize that the dam will not negatively affect downstream countries and may aid in disaster prevention and climate change mitigation.
Concerns in India and Bangladesh
Despite these assurances, India and Bangladesh have expressed apprehension over the potential impacts of the dam. India fears that the project could enable China to control the flow of the Brahmaputra River, which is crucial for agriculture, drinking water, and livelihoods in northeastern India. There is also concern that China could release large volumes of water during hostilities, potentially causing flooding in border areas.
The Indian government has conveyed its concerns to China, emphasizing the need to ensure that the interests of downstream states are not harmed by upstream activities. India has also underscored the importance of transparency and consultation regarding such mega projects on trans-border rivers.
India’s Countermeasure: The Siang River Project
In response to China’s plans, India has decided to expedite its own hydropower project on the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh. The proposed Siang project is not only aimed at generating power but also at mitigating potential flood risks posed by China’s upstream activities. The project includes the construction of a reservoir capable of storing 9 billion cubic meters of water, which would ensure a consistent flow of the river during dry seasons and act as a buffer against sudden water releases from upstream Chinese dams.
Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has highlighted the strategic importance of the Siang project, stating that it would help maintain the river’s flow even during dry seasons and prevent catastrophic flooding in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and Bangladesh. He also emphasized the need for India to remain vigilant, given China’s unpredictable actions.
Comparative Analysis of Storage Capacities
A notable aspect of these developments is the storage capacities of the proposed dams. China’s dam is designed with a storage capacity of approximately 5.5 billion cubic meters, while India’s Siang project boasts a larger capacity of 9 billion cubic meters. This significant difference implies that, in the event of China releasing large volumes of water, India’s reservoir could potentially absorb the excess, thereby mitigating the risk of downstream flooding.
Strategic Implications
The unfolding scenario underscores a strategic water management approach by India to counterbalance China’s upstream control over the Brahmaputra River. By developing the Siang project, India aims to safeguard its water security, protect its border regions from potential hydrological threats, and enhance its hydropower capacity. This move reflects a broader strategy to address the challenges posed by trans-boundary river management in a region marked by complex geopolitical dynamics.
Environmental and Seismic Considerations
Both proposed dam sites are located in seismically active zones, raising concerns about the potential environmental and safety risks associated with large-scale hydropower projects in such regions. The construction and operation of these dams could have significant ecological impacts, including alterations to river flow regimes, disruption of aquatic ecosystems, and displacement of local communities. Moreover, the Himalayan region’s susceptibility to earthquakes necessitates rigorous safety measures to prevent catastrophic failures.
Conclusion
The competing hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra River by China and India highlight the intricate interplay between development ambitions and geopolitical considerations in South Asia. While both nations seek to harness the river’s hydropower potential, it is imperative to balance these objectives with environmental sustainability and the rights and interests of downstream communities. Transparent dialogue, mutual trust, and cooperative water management practices will be crucial in ensuring that these projects contribute to regional development without exacerbating tensions or causing ecological harm.
